I've been keeping an eye on the wireless ASP (Application Service Provider) industry for a while now. In this column I want to "drill down" (hey...gotta make sure I'm hip to the vernacular) into the industry a bit to discuss how the ASP evolution will affect the wireless industry directly, and how the wireless industry will affect the ASPs.

It seems that ASPs are putting big money on wireless. A recent report from Cahner's In-Stat Group, part of which I am going to share in a moment, puts W-ASPs (no, this time I didn't make this up) on the fast track to partners in wireless crime.

Cahner's says - the report seems to insinuate that there is a pent-up demand for hosted wireless applications. In the report, W-ASPs: Enabling M-Services and Wireless Internet Applications, Cahner's writes: "With the ranks of mobile workers growing and wireless technology advancing rapidly, many U.S. companies are eager to make key applications accessible via a host of wireless devices." According to high-tech market research firm Cahner's In-Stat Group, there will be more than 700 million wireless Internet subscribers by 2004. However, wireless data technology is still immature and requires integration of multiple vendors' equipment and software.

A new class of outsourcer, wireless-enabling application service providers (W-ASPs), has emerged to assist companies with the difficult task of making all the pieces in the wireless puzzle fit together. "W-ASPs are responsible for keeping up with fast-changing technology and assume the risk of implementing and supporting the wireless web."

Cahner's further goes on to define what the W-ASP will provide. Services will include:

• Translation services - porting or translating Web content to wireless networks, including initial setup and maintenance.
  
  
• Wireless application services - data applications delivered for a fee.
  
  
• M-services content - Internet content translated and delivered through the wireless network.
  
  
• Wireless infrastructure technology and services - including software, hardware, consulting and custom implementation delivered to the wireless carrier, content provider or wireless ASP.

In the opinion of the writer, "W-ASPs help companies provide wireless access to vital systems like field service personnel scheduling and deployment, customer relationship management applications, fleet asset tracking, and corporate databases." Today, although nearly 70% of mobile workers have mobile phones, less than 4% have wireless access to e-mail or corporate intranets. W-ASPs will likely help boost the numbers of wireless Internet users over the next several years.

Oh the horror - Well, it seems that I've heard this somewhere before. Wasn't it only a few short years ago that "those" experts were pumping dot-coms as the only place to put your presence (and money). And countless dotcoms surfaced, targeting niche markets, many of which had nothing but "vapor-demand".

If you look hard at what this excerpt says, you'd think that W-ASPs will be the grand marshals of the wireless ball "making all the pieces of the wireless puzzle fit together."

I doubt it! - First of all, the wireless industry still has platform issues. Recall Java was supposed to be the solution to bloat ware and computer sprawl. It was supposed to be the next ubiquitous enabling platform that would move tiny applets universally compatible server-resident code and data to the user as needed (the WWW of the future). This was supposed to eliminate the need for large client systems with application software. Well, it hasn't happed.

Secondly, I find it extremely unlikely that all of these ASPs, existing or new, are going to play nice and find a way to coexist, sorry - history indicates otherwise.

Thirdly, if you think that any one particular segment of the industry will be allowed to assume the risk of implementing and controlling both the tremendous diversity (and potential gold mine) of the wireless web, think again.

What I think - I think that what Cahner's (and today's other think-tank pundits) is trying to do is gorilla marketing. They're running out of sustenance so they're relegated to creating a "need" or an "industry" where either a solution already exists (many of these services are already being offered), or creating new "needs" based upon statistics, potential or prognostication, or maybe trying to create an industry (and take credit for it) by simply saying one has started. What worries me is that, again, capital will be over-invested in a "new industry" that, based upon "potential" "could," "theoretically" be worth billions. Yet should this "need" fail to materialize, billion and billions get washed down the drain - billions and billions that could have been used to get the current systems and technologies online, reliable and truly functional.

The business community benefits from improved wireless services; there is no doubt about that. But pumping a bunch of money into a slew of buggy, limited coverage and incompatible wireless services only serves to water down the technology gene pool.

The two biggest caveats for businesses thinking about integrating wireless connectivity are: investment and the ROI, and improved productivity. The lure of fast talking technology carpetbaggers and their "save time-save money" promises is hard to resist. With technology changing almost daily, these guys can really get the best of managers tasked with getting the most tech for the buck.

And, addressing improved productivity. Yes, wireless interconnect does offer tantalizing potential for improved productivity. But understand that even the best devices are limited by the infrastructure and applications. Presently, m-commerce is limited to a paltry 14.4 Kb/s of data bandwidth - enough to send a text-based spreadsheet or a couple of order invoices. But not nearly fast enough to support graphics or user interfaces.

Additionally, PDAs or other wireless computing devices cannot support efficient, ubiquitous and rich interfaces (browsers) as with desktop and laptop computers. So don't expect them to.

So, if you are looking at going into or expanding your wireless network. Get a reality check from your suppliers. I've said this before and I'll say it again - get a trial option or rent for a while. And get a QoS (quality of service) guarantee.

In any event, be skeptical!

- Ernest Worthman

Who is Ernest?

Ernest is a techogeek from way back. While other kids were playing baseball, hide and seek, and enjoying the heck out of frogs and toads, Ernest was rummaging through trashcans looking for old thrown out radios and appliances to take apart.

From that beginning, Ernest's first business venture was owning an electronics service company that became the first Epson authorized service center in Colorado, to being the principle of Worthman & Associates, a computer consulting firm. He is also the technology editor for RF Design and Mobile Radio Technology. He has been published in a wide range of technical and business publications including Communications, Cellular Marketing, Global Communications, Cellular Business, Satellite Communications, Earth Observation Magazine, Memory Card, and Broadband.isp, Wearables business, as well as several computer magazines, and even Cats magazine.

His credentials include a B.S., Electronic Engineering Technology, an A.A.S. in Electronic Digital Technology. He is a Certified Instructor for the State of Colorado - Post secondary/Adult, public and private, an IBM certified OS/2 trainer, a Lotus Corporation Developer/Consultant. He is a Fellow in the Radio Club of America a Senior Member of the IEEE, a member of the IBM Software Developers Assistance Program for OS/2 and a Member of IBM's Independent Vendor League for OS/2 He has also served as a member of Microsoft's Certification Exam Development Team.